>> could it be five days to go and guess what? i was right, there really is no debt deadline! welcome, everybody, i am neil cavuto and it looks, looks, looks like washington was listening to me when i listed my "let's be clear list." we will not default if the debt ceiling is not raised. point two republicans are not the ones would risk not paying the bondholders. only the president has the power to pay or not to pay. >>neil: democratic lawmakers are now saying there is wiggle room and august 2nd suddenly is not a drop dead date if it looks

like a deal is in the works. and maybe one is. guess what? even if it isn't we can still pay. the white house will outline how the treasury plans to prioritize payments. that briefing is expected after the market closes tomorrow. and no one is surprised. my guest says that is what will happen they will diet back. >>guest: if recent weeks the administration has put congress on notice that will happen, president obama used the word "armageddon," a lot of fear and fear from both sides of the aisle but now they are saying, wait, there is wiggle room. it does not have to be done by august 2nd. so, i expect they are not going to get a deal by august 2nd and they don't have to. but they make the contingency

plans and it will be interesting to see what they decide to pay for if we get to august 2nd and don't have a bill signed into law. but yesterday and today that doesn't mean default. >>neil: and that is what i was trying to stress, as crazy as the environment is, august 2nd does not mean default. explain the process that you think will play out if we don't have a deal. the treasury has to get into prioritizing bills department, right? >>guest: right, right. say august 2nd is a real date and there is wiggle room. the real date is probably closer to august 10th or 15th. the administration has the option of what to do. maybe pay government vendors late. obviously you will pay the military and send out social security checks if you don't,

and seniors get upset because the government is functioning and you have not done a partial government shut down you have to prioritize. the white house will send out the checks august 3rd and pay the military and do the things politically popular and they may have to do partial shut downs of different government openings maybe pay government contractors late but you will pay debtors. that is not default. how long can you keep that going? that is an open question. conservatives say you can keep it going for some time. >>neil: we will watch closely. the debate underway in the house of representatives on speaker speaker boehner's bill in about two hours. we will be all over this. we will be watching them watch us were watching them. and now, mike, where do we

stand? >>guest: all eyes are on the house of representatives which is going first when it comes to the debt ceiling vote. and all eyes are on whether the republicans have 21 votes -- 216 votes they need to pass the house of representatives. he has been pulling the members into his office doing last minute arm twisting trying to make sure he has the votes. he was asked if he had the votes and he referred to his whip who did not want to make a bold statement in front of the cameras but we did get this from the speaker. >> the bill not per expect. i never said it was perfect and no one in the caucus believes it is perfect but it reflect as sincere and honest effort to end the crisis in a bipartisan way, to send it to the senate where it can receive action. >>reporter: the question is:

what does "bipartisan," mean. the speaker was negotiating with bipartisan leaders in the united states senate, and democrats say it is not bipartisan at all and the majority leader in the house of representatives, nancy people lows says if this passes do not count on the democrats. >> the boehner bill will not pass because it has democratic votes. i am not speaking for every member in my caucus but i feel very confident if they have 217 votes whatever it is they will have to be republican votes. >> that is where we stand at this point. the majority leader in the house of representatives says if it passes the house of representatives and he hear kills it in the senate any chance of default is on harry reid's shoulders and, so, first things first, the house has to vote on the measure. it is clear the hurdles in two hours and we will necessity if the dinner plan is sent on to the senate.

>>neil: thank you very much, mike, from the capitol hill. and more on the fox business network at 6:00 p.m., and speaker boehner needs these guys. how will this guy vote? he will tell us. and only us. look at the corner of wall and broad on the big board the dow jones industrial average down 6 2 1/2 points. we focus on the markets for good reason, we are led to believe they are sort of waiting to see what comes out of washington. but, are we making a mistake if we go the other way and conduct national policy, political long term debt policy based on the market? charles says "be careful." >>guest: be very, very careful. you have a couple of things going on. first the scare tactics that everyone is using in washington, you remember when the tarp vote did not go through and the dow jones industrial averages with

down 700 points. do you want that to happen? president bush signed tarp into law october 3rd, 2008, march 9, the dow jones industrial average was off 4,000 points so that was not a panacea. unemployment got worse. our economy got worse. we have to be careful about worrying about the knee-jerk reaction. because they have said it so many times and because harry reid compared it to the great depression and armageddon there will be self self-fulfilling prophecy. i hope congress accident do stupid things bases on a my jerk reaction because the tarp vote shows tarp was passed and the economy got vote. >>neil: you are a big wall streeter and big investor and i love guys like you but the fact is i would not bet our financial future on guys like you.

what i am saying is not to be critical but if we put all our eggs in the wall street day-by-day gyrations and respond to a big temper tantrum thinking if we give them this, it will calm down, it depends what you give them and whether what you give them is long term in the interests of our country. many will argue maybe not. >>guest: you are 1,000 percent broughts in bigger spoiled broughts than market. >>neil: well, you have not met my children. >>guest: and the traders do not care. they know. they understand the real armageddon but that is good enough for wall street. you saw the rebound after we thought greece was rebounded. a heck of a rebound, one week. >>neil: and we realized it was crappy. >>guest: you are right. to try to appease wall street is a huge mistake. the federal deserve does it all the time and the government does et all the time but they play games.

washington and wall street. they use each other. >>neil: you are saying a deal doesn't necessarily mean you are east investment hook? wall street could respond favorably that we raised the debt ceiling but they could chew on this and others could chew on this and realize we kicked the can down the road? >>guest: if you look at the boehner or reid map it does not meet the criteria to avoid downgrading. it does not mean people will start eating at mcdonald's, so if i own mcdonald's i will not sell but if we drop 1,000 points i will buy aggress every but wall street knows both of these bills are not if for our country longer term. it does not matter if the stock market is poised for a big move if they resolve it. >>neil: ever since the ladies got wind that i am headed back to washington, dc, look what

happens. >> he gorgeous. amazing. just incredible. >> yes, ladies, those are lovely locks, and even fabio would be jealous, or to this case the star that grabbed the attention of the ladies. that is his body on my head but i am running to washington, ladies, it is my civic duty to cover this and straighten this mess out. we have republican senator thune and a guy that says a lot of the congressman particularly the republicans are caving, mark levin and will any democrats be for a bridge and we have

republican from wisconsin ron johnson to name a few. and on saturday as we continue with the budget brawl thing, we have ben quail, the son of the former vice president, and former c.e.o. of h.p. and wisconsin governor scott walker and we even have the i man, and they said for security reasons, i cannot tell you what hotel i am staying or what time and where exactly at the capitol hill but just follow the crowds. enough of me. >> he is gorgeous. >> he is gorgeous. amazing. in every bag of kingsford charcoal. kingsford. slow down and grill.

>>neil: we have new evidence that the white house may be becoming the national labor relations board in the fight against the nonunion boeing plant in south carolina after all. reports say it took an official position against the bill that would ban the nlrb from ordering any employer to relocate, shut

down or transfer jobs under any circumstance. and now the south carolina congressman who sponsored the bill, this is getting stranger and stranger. >>guest: by the minute. first thing i had is a conversation with president obama a now weeks ago and he said he was staying out of this situation, out of this case and now you see, of course, we see a reversal of fortune. it is unfortunate because this is not simply parochial issue for south carolina but for all american workers and the job creators of america. it is safer to be a company with headquarters in a different nation, now, than to deal with the nlrb and the unfortunate part is the $14 trillion debt we are using taxpayer dollars to take jobs away from every day, hard working americans. it is wrong. it is not right. >>neil: what is the nlrb doing

exactly on the litigation over boeing going from washington state to a new facility in south carolina? >>guest: the league guy, mr. solomon has said to boeing they were working against union workers in washington state when they made the decision to land their new line in south carolina and that is an absolute false statement. they said during the field hearing in charleston the bone of contention was the loss of jobs and i asked the simple question is, how many jobs have been lost in washington state and the answer was "zero," but hypothetically they could have lost jobs. the bottom line is we do not deal with hypothetical. there have been zero jobs lost and 1,000 created in charleston. the second question was a transfer of assets. the definition of "transfer," seems to indicate that it was

someplace and now it is somewhere only. the fact is when asked, the answer was there have been no transfers of assets and the brand new facility in south carolina trusted very, zero as societies from washington state, so, we have no jobs lost, no assets that were trusted, and we should simply have no case. >>neil: is the goal here to drag this out for so long that boeing quits? or what? >>guest: it appears he spoke the truth when he said the preference was for boeing to settle this case outside of the legal process. >>neil: what does "settle" mean, he obviously wants the 1,000 unionized of this plant in question before it was expanded, and they rejected unionization. so, it looks like the 1,000 jobs if he had his way would be goon if they are not unionized

workers. >>guest: the unfortunate reality is before they had no unions they had a union. and one of the persons who testified at the field hearing was the former president of the union at the boeing plant. and she said without any question, the plant was better off having had the relationship with the unions, they felt the employees, the employees felt the plants with boater off without the union, they had no conversations and no assistance and they decided to disband with no effort put in by the boeing corporation. the employees decided what was in their best interest and that is what we about here in america. let the employees decide. >>neil: it will be up to you to decide later today how you will vet on this boehner debt plan if you don't mind switching gears, will you vote for it >>guest: i have been saying this for a long time, i am looking for the best thing for long term viability of the

economy and why see it at this point. >>neil: so right now, you would not vote for this. >>guest: that is accurate. >>neil: if it is a given that all democrats do not vote for this, do you know from some your colleagues, particularly the tea party colleagues, particularly the freshmen they all dead set against or only a couple of dozen? do you know how it breaks down? >>guest: no question that speaker boehner is doing a good job of articulating the position of our conference and i where say the majority of the freshman class will vote with the speaker on the bill and there will be a lot of folks in the freshman class, at least the majority, that will vote. >>neil: you would think two thirds will vote for it of the freshman class? he said yesterday get your ass if -- in line?

did that scare people? did that change people? >>guest: if you have been studying the issue, profanity puts me into the other corner when i at shoved around, so for me they have been cordial with their attempt to get me to vote. they have laid out the facts and one of the strengths of leadership cantor and john boehner they have done a job of laying out the facts and convincing us based on the merits of the case and the real question is, do you believe that long term our country is better off with this deal or not? they have done a good job of making that clear. >>neil: we will watch closely. do companies need excuses not to hire? accusations are flying that companies are using the doubt mess to deliberately hold become

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>>shepard: moody is threatening to downgrade america's rating and says nonfinancial companies such as apple and pfizer are sitting on $1 trillion. a lot of green. and my next guest is seeing red because of that. congressman you say the companies have an obligation to hire, is that it? >>guest: they should hire. the economy is getting better. the people for see a better economy the second quarter. i predicted the dow jones industrial average at 12,000 a

long time ago right here and i see it going up to 13,000. it has again down because of inaction of congress but we will get it resolved and the bond rating and interest rates have not again down. >>neil: you could be optimistic on the economy, knock on whatever, i hope you are right but the latest number she the opposite, durable orders, a key gauge of manufacturing sector is doing no sign of progress in the real estate or housing and more companies laying off and the lay off picture has picked up considerably with research in motion this week alone more than 10,000 such layoffs announced. if it not a double dip, it is bad. what is going on? >>guest: the railroads had an increase in their traffic and you can graph over the last 20 years the traffic that the railroads take and transportation and freight with thed if and poor's and it goes along with it and railroad traffic has been going up and

that is a good indication of the market. >>neil: so you are right. but i want to get a sense of why companies that are starting to make many or improved fortunes because they cut costs, why they should hire or spend that money hiring folks now when they don't know what the heck will come out of you and your colleagues in washington or the health care bill and what tim cost them? they don't know what taxes could come down the pike? what is to step them from keeping their powder dry? >>guest: in germany they had great economic movement and taxes are 46 percent, a vat tax at 21 percent but they have a strong manufacturing economy and we will have a "make it in america," jobs program, and encourage innovation and investment and innovation and new technology and green jobs and get pell grants maintained so we have educational opportunity. we will be able to do some of

that and i hope what the republicans have done by putting off this debt ceiling, and they did this for president bush seven times putting it off, but the marks have not been as bad as when they did not vote for tarp. >>neil: you are blaming the republicans on this? you are 800 days plus late on submitting a budget at all? there is enough blame to go around. >>guest: not the budget, the budget is different from the debt ceiling. >>neil: you rejected raising the debt ceiling in 2006, then it was not politics but now it is. i am just saying if you are going to rip republicans for playing licks -- politics then what were you doing then? >>guest: i wasn't here in 2006. >>neil: what do you think of what they were doing then including senator senator obama voted against raising it. >>guest: the debt ceiling was

raised. >>neil: and the same things were said in reverse. >>guest: but the republicans voted for it and the two wars that were off budget, they voted for prescription medicare drug plan that was off budget and for the bush tax cuts and the biggest expenses--. >>neil: as did democrats. >>guest: predominantly republicans. what we are talking about is paying the debt. >>neil: listen to this, they say these goes are still doing the blame game, bringing up george bush, when do you guys let go of bush? when do you put the bush thing away? >>guest: i don't about. the issue is--. >>neil: he is out of office going on a few years, let go. let go. >>guest: because the republican congress from 2000 to 2006 supported his policies and now the same people--. >>neil: as did a majority democrats and played the same

game and the same games on budget by not submitting one over the last 800 plus days. i am saying republicans are hardly saints but you cannot say, your colleagues, ain't sinners? >>guest: i can't say that but this policy, this issue is about paying debts. america should not be a deadbeat the we should not be like greece or portugal and it should not be an issue and to hold the nation hostage because they want--. >>neil: wait, wait, wait, they are house taking to stop spending but liberals are not if they want to keep spending where it is? >>guest: no, liberal dozen not, we understand we need cuts in the budget but not in areas where we are costing innovation and infrastructure investment. we should, the hedge fund folks making billions and billions, there is another steve cohen paying $1 billion and he pays 15

percent so that is why he has art pieces and cars and homes. the average american cannot stand that. oil breaks. tax breaks. >>neil: the average american cannot stand this. i guarantee 70 years from now democrats will still be talking about the evil george public, it is time to move on, it is time--. >>guest: like you said the american people do not want do see this and we do not need the boehner plan that continues this with another vote. >>neil: all right. okay congressman, thank you very much. >>guest: thank you. >>neil: what could be good news for john boehner, on the vote and whether it goes down, a fellow tennessean who the speaker tried to get support for on the measure to get the debt under control earlier opposed now is saying he will vote for

the boehner measure. this is the one that keeps the government going through the end of the year but one more crucial yes note that was a no vote. hardly a done vote but speaker boehner yesterday said "guys get your ass in line."

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is there an emerging plan (c) plan? and does it include tax hikes? or what? and now from the white house, what is going on? very report what is interesting in talking to some democratic officials close to the talks they think they are starting to move, starting, starting to move closer to some sort of a compromise that with zero in on the fact that this is middle ground here between the boehner and reid plan. the spending cuts are not too far off and both have a mechanism that would create a special competent on capitol hill to look at more spending cuts down the road so there is a second phase to all of this. the key sticking point is, what would force action by the special committee? how do you make sure it is not just some other washington commission that studies the problem and accident do anything? what is the enforcement in

place, and they call it a "trigger," and president obama has been working boat parties and they finding common ground on a trigger mechanism for enforcement that the special committee a few months down the road fails to enact more spending cuts there will be penalties for each side. for example, if the republicans were to walk away from the talks, maybe would be higher taxes, something they don't want so an incentive to stay at the table. maybe if the democrats walk away there are republican ideas to strip out key provisions of the obama health care plan. so, have some sort of trigger. a stick, something to keep the guys at the table. the key is so if you get the other spending cuts there would be another lift to the debt ceiling so we do not have another vote like this in six months. they are not this but the democratic folks believe there is small progress being made specifically between the white

house and senate republicans who are more open to this idea of compromise. the house republicans pushing forward on the boehner bill but in the white house they believe there is in chance in the senate so they think they need a third way, some sort of a plan (c). keep your eye on the "trigger," that will be a key sticking place. >>neil: if i hear you correctly if republicans and cuts were going the way they thought and it was working out the way they voted and would be the case, the trigger would kick in for not having to go through this again early next year and you could proceed beyond "go," and take it up end of next year, right? >>guest: that the president as you know is digging in on the idea that he doesn't want to come back in december or january and ask for more money to lift the debt ceiling and at the white house they say that would add more uncertainty to the economy during the holiday

season and republicans don't want to give the president too much latitude on the debt ceiling, they want him to guarantee there are more spending cuts and it is not just talk. they are not quite there yet but that issue of how much room do you have on the debt ceiling, they are finally having quiet conversations about the divide. they are not close to a deal but they have the conversations. >>neil: thank you very much from the white house, ed. and the health care costs are piling up, jumping to 20 percent of all government spending by 2020 and neither plan tackles the issue. and now, byron, this could be a problem for the tea party conservatives would have to sign on, right? >>guest: a huge problem if, according to the new report from

center for medicare and medicaid services, health care costs would grow 5.7 percent a year for 10 years, without the affordable care act. with the affordable care act it will grow 5.8 percent a year. the whole thing was making health scare more affordable and it appears it will not do that. >>neil: if that is by and large left identity of the rival debt limit measures, the republican one does address some cost issues and i believe medicaid and some in medicare, it would seem not enough and if i am a rebellious tea partier or one of the 87 conservative freshmen this could give me pause, what did you think? >>reporter: early in the debt talks the white house floated through a vague president the president might have been open to raising eligibility age for

medicare, but nothing came of that, and it is not if any real proposal so attacking entitlement spending is not part of this deal and you have to think if you look at congressional democrats house and senate, and what is their main platform for 2012 election, that platform is republicans are going to take away your medicare. if the president were to agree to limit the cost of medicare that would cut him right off at legs so why think you will see that being any part of it. >>neil: your thoughts of the likelihood of a deal august 2nd? >>reporter: well, we don't know that august 2nd is a totally hard deadline but that deadline is coming up, no doubt, and in the past 24 hours we have seen the forces inside the republican party would support the boehner plan have put on a full court press and the pressure is now on the tea party

holdouts who think this is not a good deal and they are asked over and over again, okay you kill the boehner plan, what is next and they will say cut, cap and balance and they say, no, cut, cap and balance has been tried and tabled by the senate. what is your plan? and i think what will happen is the dinner forces are going to prevail. this will until we -- >>neil: we will watch closely, buyer republican. and the issue here is that 270 votes is how many speaker boehner needs to get that through and nancy pelosi has indicated he will not have one democrat supporting it and if that trues it relies on all republicans pushing this through and we have heard from at least 18 would say "no." so, that is close. >>reporter: pretty close. >>neil: and that is why we are going do washington, dc, and we are getting this reaction because so many of you, particularly the ladies, are

excited. there are nose who say, well, this is childish, why would someone like you be doing something like this because that is the kind of reaction i get when i go anywhere. ladies, calm down, calm down, i'll be there and help you with your financial problems. we will have republican senator general thune of south dakota, and i may have said north dakota before and i apologize, and constitutional attorney mark levin, and we have wisconsin republican ron johnson, and at 6:00 p.m. on fox business network, barney frank and become on saturday, the budget bull, taking it to the limit with republican congressman ben quayle and more.

so much more, including don imus, and all you need to know i am there, we are watching your money, because we care. but, first, compromise, consider what the president got in the works for your car. [ jelani ] neither of my parents went to college.

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>>neil: and president obama is scheduled to announce a fuel efficiency plan that had audit to -- automakers they were so mad they were ready to launch a plan against him. but they cooled their jets and dropped the ads and agreed to 1.7 miles per hour less than what the administration wanted from 56.2 miles per gallon to 54.5 miles per gallon. you smell a rat? >>guest: very much so.

when they started to run the ad opposing this, they stopped in a day and a half of running the ad. my take was i smelled the unions involved. the president of the united states and the uaw are very, very close friends. and the president of the united states, the white house, said, look, you stop running the ads and i will make sure we call the dogs off and the uaw from trying to unionize or be as agreesive in unionizing your plants. >>neil: the white house has argued there are no democrats here, nothing is going on here but you are saying it is odd that at the very least the auto companies that are dead set against the increase in the standard suddenly are quiet? >>guest: dead set because it was impossible to achieve, the

president had this dog and pony show, a political move. he started to move to the point where the older companies would shell out money and they do that they have to lay people off. so they started to run ads. and that embarrassed the white house. so the white house had to employ what they called were their tactics to she it down and used a uaw spokesman to say, what can you do? they called him in with a quick half hour meeting and my opinion was we will leave you alone and you leave us alone. >>neil: but the medal ground is, we will not make it 56 but we will make it 54.5 miles per gallon, is that any easier to achieve? >>guest: no, it will not happen. absolutely not. now they have zero emission credits and it was continue years ago, a car company did it, you got x amount of credits. >>neil: and that would be part

of the average? >>guest: and it doctored down their average and now they have the president saying, we will give you midterm review so you can now contest this legally, going forward. so it will be in court forever of the -- face it, the president is running for re-election. and he needs all the political fuel he can get. >>neil: you mentioned something interesting during the break, this whole debate on the debt in washington it impacts guys like you. can you spin that? >>guest: sure, right now like any business person i am very uncertain of the future. i am not hiring. people least me, two have left and i am not replacing them and i am looking for another round of lay offs and that will be on

the union employees to take the hit. i don't where i will be in six months or a year. >>neil: is are keeping your powder dry? >>guest: don't have a choice. >>neil: thank you.

>>neil: i have taken to calling it the harry boehner show, harry rips boehner's plan but does the majority leader in the senate have votes? mike, what do you think? >>guest: he will wait to see how speaker boehner's plan does in the house. assuming it gets the 216 votes it needs, he will essentially shut it down is there are procedural things he can do in

terms of signaling to the house of representatives this will not pass the senate. but we need to work together on a compromise and whether it will come up for a vote it is not clear. we her it may not have 60 votes is he is in the likely to bring up a plan that will not pass the united states senate but at this hour we are waiting to see if the republicans in the house of representatives have 216 votes. there has been a lot of arm twisting going on. you made news when you got representative scott to say she a "no," around the same time that a republican from tennessee would was a "no," said he is a yes. do not expect house republicans to be overconfident until the gavel falls in the 6:00 p.m. tomorrow hour. if they go do recess in the middle of vote or if they pull the bill from the floor, odds are that means they did not have the votes and did not want to be

embarrassed by the failure. >>neil: in that events then what? >>guest: back to the drawing board. we her the speaker of the house using colorful language trying to rally support from republicans to this bill and if it falls apart, you would have to say moment up shifts to the democrats and what they want to do but at this point, it is watch and wait to see what the house republicans do in the 6:00 p.m. hour. >>neil: thank you, buddy. come let coverage of the vote at 6:00 p.m. tonight on the fox business network and we will keep you posted. fancy nancy sounding absolutely crazy. r. the only time you can savor three sweet alaskan crab entrees all under $20, like our hearty crab

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is save the world from the we are trying to save life on this planet as we know it today. >> trying to save life on this planet? out of this world. they wonder why hope for a deal is running out of time. sometimes the folks with whom you have to negotiate seem out of their friggin' mind. life on this planet. anyway, i'll save the planet and be there to gauge what's happening in washington tomorrow. can you believe that? anyway, we've got special coverage of all of this, separating fact from fiction, 4:00 p.m. eastern time from our nation's capital. we have john thune joining us. our guest is angry at these conservative republicans. wisconsin republican, ron johnson back at